A Passing Pattern
shifting weather - what it means for people of the sea
Aloha mai - Keili here,
Last few days have been such a blast and gone by fast with friends, family and new adventures. So many things changed last year in my life and the lives of those around me. I canʻt help but be filled with emotion watching all of our dreams change and begin to come to life around us each day. Hard work has been put in through small, everyday acts.
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Just this morning I helped (well, I really just watched) my friend, Noel, figure out her new sailboat that she got during an impulsive call to learn sailing with Chris and I. It makes sense for her - living along the marina with a dock against her rental unit - why wouldn’t she get a sick 14 foot sailboat to go on little adventures! So, this morning we rose before the sun with an intention of sailing. However, to go sailing does not always mean you will go sailing. And for us this morning it actually meant that we were going to learn how to slowly and safely dismantle the mast in order to fit under the bridge of the marina. LOL.
A noticeable shift
Anyways, because of all the shifts around me I wanted to relate it back to something that has been of interest to me in the world of sailing. That is, the El Nino weather pattern we are wrapping up this year.
Of course, we all know the basics of an El Niño that we learned in middle school and high school; that it is an event with unusual weather patterns likely to occur every 2-7 years. Our last one was 2018-2019, so we were about due for it… But, since there is so much going on with climate change, erupting volcanoes etc., it made me curious to learn more!
As I prepare for our voyage across the pacific, I find myself fascinated with weather patterns. I have been checking my Windy app at least once a day to see how the forecasts are being updated and get a broader understanding of high and low pressure systems in Hawaiʻi and California.
Weather changes caused by ENSO by Wikipedia
El Niño-Southern Oscilation (ENSO) cycle
Caused by weakened trade winds. Usually, trades blow the warm water from the west coast of America to Asia. When the trade winds slow, however, the warm water buildup along the west coast causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and push it east of its median position. The Pacific jet stream is a fast, narrow current of air that encircles the globe and flows from west to east. Consequently, the northern U.S and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. Except in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast which will experience wetter than usual weather (like the floods we are seeing in Southern California).
That being said, you canʻt blame EVERYTHING on the El Niño… Climate change plays a big part, and these forecasts and predictions are only predictions - there are no two ENSO or La Nina events that are exactly alike.
Of course, weak trade winds are unfavorable for Menehune hoping to take advantage of da breeze.
On top of that, there tend to be more tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi during ENSO - luckily this El Niño is expected to be coming to a (late) end in April.
However, my friend Aleric did share with me a paper that explored the theory that ancient Polynesian voyagers may have taken advantage of the rare winds of ENSO to coast westward and sail to new islands. So, El Niño could open an occasional window to find relatively easy and welcoming passages on unlikely passages to the west! Guess it's not ALL bad for sea farers.
Reflects the ʻōlelo noʻeau (Hawaiian proverb) beautifully;
E nānā ana i ka ʻōpuao ka ʻāina.
Observing the horizon clouds of the land.
Kūkulu ka ʻike i ka ʻōpua.
Knowledge is set up in the clouds.
He hōʻaliona ke ao i ʻike ʻia.
Clouds are recognized signs.
Hawaiians always found a way to relate whatever they were going through into language and back to natures signs. A reminder that nature tells us what we need to do and how to do it, we need only to observe - to listen closely.
Nāhahōkūhoʻokelewaʻa updates in general…
You may be happy to hear, based on all of this information, that we have decided to postpone our journey to a bit later in the summer. Though, we will of course be on standby for the perfect weather window to open up the yellow brick road back home to us. Chris has also found us a friend who has agreed to escort us along the way!
Preparing for the worst & hoping for the best, Chris has gone to California to do some prep work on ʻAʻĀ and give her some TLC. He will first be working on the hatch mechanisms, then replacing most of the rigging with new parts, and building out a structure for the deck. If anyone is around Dana Point and would like to get experience or bring him some motivation, I appreciate you!
I wish I was able to help him, but I am glad that he has the support of such an amazing community composed of family, neighbors, and friends new and old! He will come back with amazing stories, some of which will end up on here i’m sure!
While I patiently await the voyage to come, I will be preparing with exciting sailing lessons aboard Noels new boat! I have also been having some major back issues so I am hoping to get stronger and heal, like -now!
Mahalo ke akua, mahalo to my favorite ʻohana and my lovely lovely friends. This post along with all those to come is dedicated to my mother who always supported my love of writing and adventure.